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With nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, City forward Erling Haaland has started the season in spectacular form.

Although this isn't his most impressive beginning to a season - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in two seasons ago and 10 last season - it nonetheless positions him with a three-goal lead in the initial race for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the prize so early in the season.

Firstly, the quantity of strikes he has already scored - and, just as importantly, the number and quality of opportunities he's receiving.

Secondly, the modest opening his regular challengers for the award have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A player's expected goals number (xG) represents how many goals a Premier League player has typically netted from the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's received.

It is not a number randomly picked by statistics boffins, but by Premier League history.

When examining at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this campaign from open play, the Norway forward is getting so many more excellent scoring situations to convert than every other footballer.

Indeed, even if Haaland were no better at converting opportunities than every other footballer in the league, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as the remainder of the league.

Chance Creation Breakdown

This is illustrated by analyzing the total and standard of scoring situations that players have had in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this season, twelve additional compared to all other attackers.

That is actually not especially surprising for him - he had in fact attempted more non-penalty shots at this stage in the previous two campaigns (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the previous term).

What's particularly unprecedented even for him is the caliber of opportunities he has had this season. His attempts have had an xG value of an average of 0.27.

This statistic indicates is that attackers have typically netted the shots he has had at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Of players to take at minimum ten attempts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to net per shot - thanks to a few simple finishes against West Ham United and Brighton.

Haaland's xG of an average of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 expected goals per attempt he had at the opening of last term.

Essentially, the scoring situations he has had in 2025-26 have been significantly more straightforward to find the net from in a reorganised City team than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Past Performance Analysis

Starting a season so impressively is, as previously stated, not unusual for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last season he had netted ten times - a quartet more than any other player and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Reds attacker who claimed the top scorer award with 29 goals, seven additional compared to the City forward.

During the current term, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has scored half the number goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this juncture last term.

In fact this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League term the Egyptian attacker has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It isn't only Salah who has opened quietly either. When examining at the top 11 scorers in the English top division last campaign, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the other 10 players combined so far.

Whether because of fitness issues - several key attackers - long-running transfer sagas in one particular striker's situation or merely because their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's probable competitors in the battle for the scoring title have failed to perform so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

While Haaland looks the clear favourite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European top scorer prize that is awarded to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's top-five leagues?

That contest is considerably more open at this initial phase because two world-class strikers have also started in superb fashion, with eleven and nine strikes each.

The reality Haaland has scored so many times and has the highest xG of the trio without having taken any spot-kicks makes him the likely winner.

But since the English and French stars are two of the best goal-scorers in European soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the battle continues intensely.